Global sensitivity analysis of leaf-canopy-atmosphere RTMs: Implications for biophysical variables retrieval from top-of-atmosphere radiance data

Knowledge of key variables driving the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiance over a vegetated surface is an important step to derive biophysical variables from TOA radiance data, e.g., as observed by an optical satellite. Coupled leaf-canopy-atmosphere Radiative Transfer Models (RTMs) allow linking vegetation variables directly to the at-sensor TOA radiance measured. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of RTMs enables the computation of the total contribution of each input variable to the output variance. We determined the impacts of the leaf-canopy-atmosphere variables into TOA radiance using the GSA to gain insights into retrievable variables. The leaf and canopy RTM PROSAIL was coupled with the atmospheric RTM MODTRAN5. Because of MODTRAN's computational burden and GSA's demand for many simulations, we first developed a surrogate statistical learning model, i.e., an emulator, that allows approximating RTM outputs through a machine learning algorithm with low computation time. A Gaussian process regression (GPR) emulator was used to reproduce lookup tables of TOA radiance as a function of 12 input variables with relative errors of 2.4%. GSA total sensitivity results quantified the driving variables of emulated TOA radiance along the 400-2500 nm spectral range at 15 cm-1 (between 0.3-9 nm); overall, the vegetation variables play a more dominant role than atmospheric variables. This suggests the possibility to retrieve biophysical variables directly from at-sensor TOA radiance data. Particularly promising are leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water thickness and leaf area index, as these variables are the most important drivers in governing TOA radiance outside the water absorption regions. A software framework was developed to facilitate the development of retrieval models from at-sensor TOA radiance data. As a proof of concept, maps of these biophysical variables have been generated for both TOA (L1C) and bottom-of-atmosphere (L2A) Sentinel-2 data by means of a hybrid retrieval scheme, i.e., training GPR retrieval algorithms using the RTM simulations. Obtained maps from L1C vs L2A data are consistent, suggesting that vegetation properties can be directly retrieved from TOA radiance data given a cloud-free sky, thus without the need of an atmospheric correction

Yaws elimination in Ecuador: Findings of a serological survey of children in Esmeraldas province to evaluate interruption of transmission.

BACKGROUND: The WHO roadmap for neglected tropical diseases includes yaws eradication requiring certification of elimination of transmission in all endemic and formerly endemic countries worldwide. A community-based programme for yaws control was considered to have achieved elimination of the infection in the endemic focus in Ecuador after 1993. We did a serosurvey of children in this focus to provide evidence for interruption of transmission. METHODS: Survey of serum samples collected from children aged 2 to 15 years living in the formerly endemic and in geographically contiguous areas. A convenience sample of sera collected between 2005 were 2017 from non-yaws studies, were analyzed using immunochromatic rapid tests to screen (OnSite Syphilis Ab Combo Rapid Test) for Treponema pallidum-specific antibodies and confirm (DPP Syphilis Screen and Confirm) seroreactivity based on the presence antibodies to treponemal and non-treponemal antigens. RESULTS: Seroreactivity was confirmed in 6 (0.14%, 95% CI 0.06-0.30) of 4,432 sera analyzed and was similar in formerly endemic (0.11%, (95% CI 0.01-0.75) and non-endemic (0.14%, 95% CI 0.06-0.34) communities. All seroreactors were of Afro-Ecuadorian ethnicity and most were male (4/6) and aged 10 or more years (5/6), the latter possibly indicating venereal syphilis. Only 1 seroreactor lived in a community in the Rio Santiago, that was formerly hyperendemic for yaws. CONCLUSION: We observed very low levels of treponemal transmission in both formerly endemic and non-endemic communities which might be indicative of congenital or venereal syphilis and, if yaws, would likely be insufficient to maintain transmission of this endemic childhood infection. Additional surveys of children aged 1 to 5 years are planned in Rio Santiago communities to exclude yaws transmission

Resultados clínicos en receptores de trasplante renal posterior a la conversión a ImTOR

Introducción: los ImTOR, sirolimus y everolimus son una alternativa de inmunosupresión en personas que han recibido transplantes rena-les. En este artículo, se describe la experiencia de pacientes que han experimentado una conversión a ImTOR, y a los que se les ha hecho un seguimiento por más de cinco años.Materiales y métodos: se incluyeron pacientes con transplantes renales desde 1995 hasta 2013, quienes tuvieron indicación de suspensión del inhibidor de calcineurina (ICN) después del tercer mes posterior al trasplante. Todos los pacientes fueron sometidos a biopsia renal antes de la administración de ImTOR. Ningún paciente tuvo diagnóstico de nefropatía crónica, IFTA >40 % o proteinuria >350 mg/24h. Se elaboró un análisis descriptivo para todas las variables. Para estudiar la supervivencia del paciente y del injerto, y la incidencia de rechazo agudo, se usó el método de Kaplan-Meier.Resultados: de 1273 trasplantes renales, la conversión de ICN a ImTOR se realizó en 166 casos (13 %). Al 78 % (n=129) se le administró sirolimus. El 13 % de los pacientes perdió la función del injerto y 7 pacientes (4,2 %) fallecieron. En el 37 % de los casos, se retiró el ImTOR. La principal causa de retiro fue el hallazgo de proteinuria patológica. La incidencia de rechazo agudo después del cambio a ImTOR fue de 9,6 %. La supervivencia del injerto tras uno y cinco años fue de 96,6 % y 83,5 %, respectivamente; y la supervivencia del paciente a uno y cinco años fue de 98 % y 97 %, respectivamente.Conclusiones: el uso de inhibidores ImTOR parece ser seguro en este grupo de pacientes trasplantados, pues hubo una baja tasa de rechazo y buena supervivencia del injert

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Transcriptomic Signatures of Ash (Fraxinus spp.) Phloem

Ash (Fraxinus spp.) is a dominant tree species throughout urban and forested landscapes of North America (NA). The rapid invasion of NA by emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), a wood-boring beetle endemic to Eastern Asia, has resulted in the death of millions of ash trees and threatens billions more. Larvae feed primarily on phloem tissue, which girdles and kills the tree. While NA ash species including black (F. nigra), green (F. pennsylvannica) and white (F. americana) are highly susceptible, the Asian species Manchurian ash (F. mandshurica) is resistant to A. planipennis perhaps due to their co-evolutionary history. Little is known about the molecular genetics of ash. Hence, we undertook a functional genomics approach to identify the repertoire of genes expressed in ash phloem.Using 454 pyrosequencing we obtained 58,673 high quality ash sequences from pooled phloem samples of green, white, black, blue and Manchurian ash. Intriguingly, 45% of the deduced proteins were not significantly similar to any sequences in the GenBank non-redundant database. KEGG analysis of the ash sequences revealed a high occurrence of defense related genes. Expression analysis of early regulators potentially involved in plant defense (i.e. transcription factors, calcium dependent protein kinases and a lipoxygenase 3) revealed higher mRNA levels in resistant ash compared to susceptible ash species. Lastly, we predicted a total of 1,272 single nucleotide polymorphisms and 980 microsatellite loci, among which seven microsatellite loci showed polymorphism between different ash species.The current transcriptomic data provide an invaluable resource for understanding the genetic make-up of ash phloem, the target tissue of A. planipennis. These data along with future functional studies could lead to the identification/characterization of defense genes involved in resistance of ash to A. planipennis, and in future ash breeding programs for marker development

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics potential of the DUNE experiment

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is determined, based on a full simulation, reconstruction, and event selection of the far detector and a full simulation and parameterized analysis of the near detector. Detailed uncertainties due to the flux prediction, neutrino interaction model, and detector effects are included. DUNE will resolve the neutrino mass ordering to a precision of 5σ, for all ΑCP values, after 2 years of running with the nominal detector design and beam configuration. It has the potential to observe charge-parity violation in the neutrino sector to a precision of 3σ (5σ) after an exposure of 5 (10) years, for 50% of all ΑCP values. It will also make precise measurements of other parameters governing long-baseline neutrino oscillation, and after an exposure of 15 years will achieve a similar sensitivity to sin22θ13 to current reactor experiments

First results on ProtoDUNE-SP liquid argon time projection chamber performance from a beam test at the CERN Neutrino Platform

The ProtoDUNE-SP detector is a single-phase liquid argon time projection chamber with an active volume of 7.2× 6.1× 7.0 m3. It is installed at the CERN Neutrino Platform in a specially-constructed beam that delivers charged pions, kaons, protons, muons and electrons with momenta in the range 0.3 GeV/c to 7 GeV/c. Beam line instrumentation provides accurate momentum measurements and particle identification. The ProtoDUNE-SP detector is a prototype for the first far detector module of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, and it incorporates full-size components as designed for that module. This paper describes the beam line, the time projection chamber, the photon detectors, the cosmic-ray tagger, the signal processing and particle reconstruction. It presents the first results on ProtoDUNE-SP\u27s performance, including noise and gain measurements, dE/dx calibration for muons, protons, pions and electrons, drift electron lifetime measurements, and photon detector noise, signal sensitivity and time resolution measurements. The measured values meet or exceed the specifications for the DUNE far detector, in several cases by large margins. ProtoDUNE-SP\u27s successful operation starting in 2018 and its production of large samples of high-quality data demonstrate the effectiveness of the single-phase far detector design

Prospects for Beyond the Standard Model Physics Searches at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a powerful tool for a variety of physics topics. The high-intensity proton beams provide a large neutrino flux, sampled by a near detector system consisting of a combination of capable precision detectors, and by the massive far detector system located deep underground. This configuration sets up DUNE as a machine for discovery, as it enables opportunities not only to perform precision neutrino measurements that may uncover deviations from the present three-flavor mixing paradigm, but also to discover new particles and unveil new interactions and symmetries beyond those predicted in the Standard Model (SM). Of the many potential beyond the Standard Model (BSM) topics DUNE will probe, this paper presents a selection of studies quantifying DUNE's sensitivities to sterile neutrino mixing, heavy neutral leptons, non-standard interactions, CPT symmetry violation, Lorentz invariance violation, neutrino trident production, dark matter from both beam induced and cosmogenic sources, baryon number violation, and other new physics topics that complement those at high-energy colliders and significantly extend the present reach

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics potential of the DUNE experiment

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is determined, based on a full simulation, reconstruction, and event selection of the far detector and a full simulation and parameterized analysis of the near detector. Detailed uncertainties due to the flux prediction, neutrino interaction model, and detector effects are included. DUNE will resolve the neutrino mass ordering to a precision of 5σ, for all δ_(CP) values, after 2 years of running with the nominal detector design and beam configuration. It has the potential to observe charge-parity violation in the neutrino sector to a precision of 3σ (5σ) after an exposure of 5 (10) years, for 50% of all δ_(CP) values. It will also make precise measurements of other parameters governing long-baseline neutrino oscillation, and after an exposure of 15 years will achieve a similar sensitivity to sin²θ₁₃ to current reactor experiments